Burdett Loomis's assignment to describe "what congressional politics will look like over the next decade, in the wake of the 2000 elections" is challenging. Predicting the future is always hazardous - even over two years, to say nothing about ten. The recent events in Florida reaffirmed this conviction; I was very wrong about the twists and turns of the recount and the court drama more than once.¹ While I will not offer any bold predictions in this article, I will outline what I see as the most important factors shaping the nature of racial representation in Congress over the next ten years.

One prediction that I will make, which is not very bold, is that racial problems and issues will not go away in the next ten years. Despite the hopeful plea by many social moderates to "reach beyond race" [Sniderman and Carmines 1997, Wilson 1980] and the attempts by judicial conservatives to impose a "color-blind" jurisprudence that they argue will move our society in that direction, racial politics remains at the core of American politics. The aftermath of the presidential recount supports this view. Allegations of racial disparities in the "undervote," ballot problems, intimidation at the polls, and the disqualification of thousands of minority voters who were registered to vote produced an investigation by the Civil Rights Commission and outrage from many black leaders. Even James Clyburn (D-SC), the moderate chair of the Congressional Black Caucus, said, "We know what it is to have an election stolen from us. Any Democrat who won't stand up in this instance can't expect to see black voters standing up for them two years from now" [Edsall 2000, 29]. While this statement was made about two weeks before Gore conceded, the sense of betrayal among black voters runs deep. Continuing battles over affirmative action in Florida, Michigan, California, and Texas may eventually be resolved at the national level. Racial profiling, criminal sentencing guidelines, slavery reparations, and continued uncertainty over racial redistricting are sample of the racial issues that Congress will have to struggle with over the next decade.

The remainder of this essay focuses on three factors that will influence racial representation in the next several congresses: party politics and race, racial redistricting, and the representational style adopted by the Congressional Black Caucus. The racial dimensions of national party politics was most starkly evident in the presidential races, but was also reflected in congressional elections across the nation. George W. Bush received the lowest percentage of black votes (8%) for a Republican presidential candidate since 1964. By comparison, Bob Dole drew 12% in 1996 and Bush Sr. won 10% in 1992. The Republican governor of Oklahoma, Frank Keating, said, "This is a blot on the party of Abraham Lincoln. The first order of business for Republicans in Congress, governors and a Republican administration must be to determine what went wrong and why" [Berke 2000, D3]. The new "kinder, gentler" Newt Gingrich added, "If there is any lesson out of this last election, it is that Republicans have to slow down and listen to Latinos and African-Americans and come to understand the genuine pain and the genuine fears of those communities" [Clymer 2000, A22]. The Republicans' strategy of nominating African Americans to run against Democratic African American incumbents in the House did not work in 2000. Cynthia McKinney (D-GA), for example, defeated Sunny Warren by better than 2-1 margins in most black-majority precincts [Smith 2000, 9JA].

Republicans' concern over their lack of appeal among black voters is complemented by the argument made by Paul Frymer and others that the Democratic party takes advantage of black voters who have nowhere else to go. Unless blacks show a willingness to leave the party (at more than an 8% rate), the argument goes, Democrats will continue to give little more than lip service to issues that are important to most African Americans. There are certainly issues upon which Republicans could make their case to black voters, such as school vouchers, school prayer, and limits on abortions. However, the list of issues upon which blacks favor Republican positions is relatively short and unless Republicans are willing to budge on such core issues as affirmative action, inner city development, and expanded social welfare programs, African American voters are not likely to desert the Democratic party in substantial numbers.

Racial redistricting is the second factor that will shape the nature of racial representation in Congress in the next decade. While this issue was litigated throughout the 1990s (see Canon 1999, Chapter 2 for a summary), the Court provided no clear guidelines to state legislatures on the permissible use of race in the drawing of district lines. Miller v. Johnson (1995) and Bush v. Vera (1996) dictated that race may not be the predominant factor in drawing district lines, but did not say much more than that. The Court has one final opportunity to clarify this ambiguous standard before the next round of redistricting begins. For the fourth time since the landmark case Shaw v. Reno (1993), the Court heard oral arguments concerning the snake-like "I-85" district in North Carolina. The 12^th district is much more compact than the original configuration and is no longer black majority. The state has appealed the district court decision, which struck down the district once again as a racial gerrymander, arguing that incumbency protection and party balance were the primary goals of the legislature, rather than racial considerations. In oral arguments, Sandra Day O'Connor signaled that she may shift to the liberals bloc and reverse the district court decision (nearly all of the racial redistricting cases involving U.S. House districts were by 5-4 margins, with O'Connor in the center) [Greenhouse 200, A18]. If the Court upholds the district decision in Hunt v. Cromartie, state legislatures will be stuck between the holdings of Shaw and its progeny and Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act Amendments of 1982, which dictate that minority voters cannot be denied an opportunity to elect candidates of their choice. Consequently, many congressional districts' lines will be drawn by the courts unless the Supreme Court provides some additional guidance. If state legislatures shy away from drawing black majority districts (or strong black influence districts), the number of blacks in Congress is likely to fall in the next decade.

Finally, the style of representation adopted by members of the Congressional Black Caucus must also be considered. Will the CBC reflect a "politics of commonality" or "politics of difference"? (see Canon 1999). I argue that the central explanation of the style of racial representation is rooted in the "supply-side" politics in which the racial composition of the candidate pool influences the racial content of campaign appeals, which in turn are reflected in institutional behavior. The current membership of the CBC is tilted toward a politics of commonality, but both styles are very evident. Thus, institutional factors such as party control of the chamber and the size of the CBC will come into play. The CBC was at its peak of power in the 103rd Congress when Democrats controlled Congress and there was a record number of African American members (38).² It is obviously much more difficult to have influence over policy when in the minority party. Blue Dog Democrats and moderate Republicans will control the balance of power in the deeply divided 107th Congress. The CBC can attempt to join that process, which a few moderates probably will, or they can assume the role of the "conscience of the institution" and offer left-leaning critiques of the centrist agenda and wait for the Democrats to regain control of Congress in 2002. If that happens, several CBC members will assume committee chairs, including, perhaps, Charles Rangel as chair of Ways and Means.

Racial issues are likely to remain on Congress's policy agenda over the next ten years. The role that the CBC will play in this process depends on how the Republican party responds to the challenge to attract more black voters, the Court's rulings on racial redistricting, and the representational style and institutional role that the CBC adopts. At one extreme, racial politics in Congress could move in a strongly moderate direction (if Republicans are successful in wooing black voters, if the Court takes a strong stand against racial redistricting, and if Republicans maintain control of Congress and the CBC is marginalized). At the other extreme, racial politics could be front and center in Congressional politics with the moderate to liberal wing of the CBC leading the way (if these three factors break the other way). It is simply too early to tell which of these outcomes is more likely.

NOTES

1. My biggest error in judgement came a week before election day when I told a University of Wisconsin student newspaper reporter that one presidential candidate would win the popular vote and the other would win the Electoral College. . . the only problem was that I had the candidates reversed.

2. There are 36 blacks in the 107th Congress. This could go up to 37 after the special election to fill Julian Dixon's seat; however there is no guarantee that an African American will win that seat given that the district is 40% black, 32% white, 30% Hispanic (not exclusive with the other categories), and 8% Asian-American.

REFERENCES

Berke, Richard L. 2000. "The Election; Five Lessons We Had No Time to Learn." The New York Times, December 10, D3.

Canon, David T. 1999. Race, Redistricting, and Representation: The Unintended Consequences of Black-Majority Districts. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.

Clymer, Adam. 2000. "New Portrait, New Image for Gingrich." New York Times, November 16, A22.

Edsall, Thomas. 2000. "Voting Conflict Reopens Racial Split Among Democrats." Washington Post. November 29, A29.

Frymer, Paul. 1999. Uneasy Alliances: Race and Party Competition in America. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.

Greenhouse, Linda. 2000. "Justices Reconsider Race and Redistricting." New York Times, November 28, A18.

Lublin, David Ian. 1997. The Paradox of Representation: Racial Gerrymander and Minority Interests in Congress. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.

Smith, Ben. 2000. "GOP Lured Few Black Voters; Traditional Party Lines Still Define County's African American Precincts." Atlanta Constitution, November 16, 9JA.

Sniderman, Paul M. and Edward G. Carmines. 1997. Reaching beyond race. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press.

Wilson, William Julius. 1980. The Declining Significance of Race. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.