Political Scientists Find Exit Polls' Claim of Record-High Latino Support for Bush Suspect Political Scientists Find Exit Polls' Claim of Record-High Latino Support for Bush Suspect

January 2005: Latino voters likely did not support President Bush's re-election in the record numbers two national exit polls reported after the November election.  So claims a research team comprised of political scientists David Leal (University of Texas-Austin), Matt Barreto (University of California-Irvine), Jongho Lee (Tomas Rivera Policy Institute), and Rodolfo de la Garza (Columbia University). The researchers compared results of the Edison/Mitofsky and Times exit polls against to a wide range of data including historical trends, party identification, data from pre-election surveys, and the results of official vote totals from Texas.  The results of this comparison underscore the likelihood of errors in the exit polls.  The "data provide little evidence that President Bush received the 44% level of support from Latinos estimated by the 2004 exit polls," the research team summarizes, and "it seems more logical to conclude that the exit polls mistakenly depicted the Latino vote than to accept that Latino preferences could have changed so substantially in such a short period."