October 10, 2008: APSA Resources on 2008 Canadian General Election

THE 2008 CANADIAN FEDERAL ELECTION
Analysis by Harold Clarke, Allan Kornberg, and Thomas Scotto

     Canada's 40^th federal general election will be held on October 14^th 2008. The election comes less than two years after the last federal election when the reconstituted Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) captured a plurality of parliamentary seats and reduced the erstwhile governing Liberal Party to opposition status after 13 years in power. On January 23^rd, 2006, the Liberals, led by Paul Martin Jr., were defeated by the Conservatives after an exciting and consequential election campaign that witnessed a large swing in party vote shares. CPC party leader, Stephen Harper, became prime minister. Although victorious, the Conservatives had secured only parliamentary minority, winning only 124 of 308 seats and 36% of the popular vote. The Liberals were reduced to 103 seats and garnered just over 30% of the vote, while the smaller social-democratic New Democratic Party (NDP) took 29 seats and 17% of the ballots. Separatist support in Quebec declined slightly, and the avowedly pro-sovereignty Bloc Québécois (BQ) won 51 of 75 seats and captured 42% of the vote. Although the new Harper-led CPC government was in no position to impose its will, the 39^th Parliament sustained itself longer than any minority government in Canadian history.

     The last two federal elections both resulted in minority governments and now Canadians are about to visit the polls in yet another such contest. Some may decide the trip is not worth the effort. Over the past two decades turnout in Canadian elections has declined substantially, although in 2006, it was up slightly over the historic low of 60.5% in 2004. Turnout in 2008 is difficult to forecast, but some observers fear that the frequency of recent federal elections—three in slightly over four years—may lead to voter fatigue. Also, news coverage of the campaign has been overshadowed by the current economic situation and the widely watched and anticipated federal campaign occurring in the United States.

     The issues at play in 2008 are different than in 2004 and 2006. In those elections, the Liberals were hurt by a major financial scandal. The "adscam" or “sponsorship scandal” involved a massive, and massively corrupt, patronage scheme that funneled hundreds of millions of federal dollars into the hands of Liberal supporters in Quebec.   Some of this money was then conveniently 'kicked back' to party coffers. Now, after the exit of former Liberal Leader, Paul Martin Jr., from the political stage and the defeat of his party in the 2006 election, the scandal has faded from public consciousness.

In addition, issues such as healthcare and childcare that were prominent in 2004 and 2006 may seem like luxuries as voters find their home values falling, their jobs at risk and energy prices soaring in a climate of increasing global economic uncertainty. Although the prospect of an economic downturn was one of the factors prompting Mr. Harper to call an election, the issue agenda is now dominated by the economy in a way that few, if any, foresaw only a few short weeks ago. A consummate valence issue, public opinion on the economy is totally one-sided, with everyone wanting a felicitous combination of sustainable growth coupled with low rates of unemployment and inflation. Predictably, the parties have reacted by saying that their leaders have the requisite combination of probity and wisdom to put things right.

     Throughout the campaign, Conservative leader Stephen Harper has attempted to portray himself and his party as the “steady-pair-of-hands” can lead the nation through the current crisis and reestablish Canadian prosperity. He has accused opposition leaders of panicking, and has contrasted the actions of his government with those of its counterpart in the United States, blaming President Bush and the Congress for contributing to the alarm. For their part, Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion, Bloc Leader Gilles Duceppe, and NDP Leader Jack Layton have responded with strident accusations that Prime Minister Harper is too ideologically "right-wing" to provide the Canadian economy with the management and oversight that the current troubles demand. The hitherto marginal Green Party and its leader Elizabeth May have joined the chorus. Pointing her finger in his face during the French-language leader debate, Ms. May labeled Harper a "fraud." In her opinion, Mr. Harper and his CPC colleagues are environmentally insensitive, and "green jobs" are the key to 21st century economic prosperity.

     The unexpected intrusion of the widely publicized economic crisis is not the only important feature of the election's issue agenda. Indeed, one of the remarkable aspects of this campaign is the extent to which the Liberal Party, prodded by its leader Stéphane Dion, has abandoned its traditional strategy of trying to convince voters that it would do a better job than its rivals at delivering an appealing menu of economic growth, generously funded social programs and national unity. Rather, the Liberals' novel “Green Shift” program explicitly lays out policies that would reorient Canada's economy and society to reduce damage being done to the global environment. Although polls show most voters profess to be environmentalists, this is the first time that a major Canadian party has asked them to consider tradeoffs between a green society and the luxuries of modern life. The Green Shift program proposes to fight greenhouse gas pollution with a stiff carbon tax. The proposed new tax will sharply raise energy costs, but the Liberals have tried to convince voters that the program is a "win-win" by linking the carbon taxes that would aid the environment with income and business tax reductions. The Conservatives have countered with negative advertisements portraying the Green Shift as a risky gamble during hard economic times. In addition, Mr. Harper and his colleagues have claimed that the program would cost thousands of jobs, raise fuel costs significantly, and require an enormous bureaucracy to administer.

     Although the Liberal Party is the first major Canadian party to propose a sweeping reorientation of the national economy in response to global environmental concerns, thus far the Green Shift has failed to gain widespread public attention and support. Surveys show that although most voters are aware of the proposed program, less than 50% of those polled say that it will influence their vote and many skeptical of its costs. The failure of the Green Shift to capture the imagination of Canadians has been blamed on the dour leadership style of Dion, Conservative criticisms, and the fact that voters now have become fixated on the growing economic malaise.

     Other issues have made headlines as the campaign has progressed. Mr. Harper and the Conservatives have run advertisements that paint their party as tough on crime and willing to incarcerate young offenders who commit serious felonies. The Conservatives also have stressed the need for Canada to reassert its sovereignty in the sparsely populated Arctic, accusing the Liberals of negligence during their time in power. Opposition parties have responded to these charges, and attempted to portray Mr. Harper and his CPC colleagues as philistines intent on gutting public funding for the arts. Opposition parties also have proposed immigration policies that foster the settlement of greater numbers of highly skilled workers, and have pledged to support programs they believe will reduce the number of Canadians living in poverty.

     Amidst revelations that Harper generously borrowed from a speech by former Australian Prime Minister Michael Howard supporting Canadian intervention in Iraq, Liberals have been on the airwaves reminding Canadians of Harper’s support for that unpopular action and portraying him as too close to President George Bush on both foreign and economic affairs. Fearing that these reminders could turn voters away from his party, Harper recently stated public ally that he was wrong to support the Iraq mission. And, recognizing growing public concern about a seemingly never-ending commitment of Canadian troops to Afghanistan, Harper has pledged that Canadian forces will exit that troubled country by 2011, regardless of whether the Taliban have been defeated.

     The social democratic New Democratic Party has attempted to dismiss Liberal and Conservative attacks that their ideas are outdated in a globalized world by running on a platform that vows to strengthen healthcare, public transit, and education. In addition, making a bid to rejuvenate its union base, the NDP has stressed the need to protect jobs in Canada’s automobile industry and other parts of its traditional manufacturing sector. The party also has tried to take advantage of a gender gap in Conservative support by stressing its commitment to the advancement of women.

     The big surprise of the 2006 election was the inroads the Conservatives made in Quebec. The CPC captured 10 seats in the province and obtained a larger vote share than the Liberals. A few short months ago, it seemed that the Conservatives could hang their hopes for a majority in a forthcoming election on gaining additional seats in Quebec. Support for sovereignty had ebbed and the provincial separatist party, the Parti Québécois, is weaker than at any time in decades. Recognizing the opportunity, Mr. Harper spent political capital during his term as prime minister appealing to so-called “soft nationalists” by recognizing Quebec as a nation within Canada, declaring a vague policy of “open federalism,” and allowing Quebec to sit with Canada at UNESCO. However, Jean Charest, the leader of the provincial Liberals has been a thorn in Harper’s side, making additional demands for accommodation and more federal spending for the province. The principal beneficiary of this federal-provincial squabbling has been the Bloc Québécois who no longer calls for an immediate sovereignty referendum, but rather portray itself as a party who will travel to Ottawa to defend Quebec’s interests.

     Minority governments are not unusual in Canada—fully eight of 17 federal elections conducted over the past half-century have resulted in hung parliaments. As this is written, the polls show that, nationally, the Conservatives are running in the low to mid- 30's, the Liberals in the mid- to high 20's, and the NDP in the upper-teens. The Bloc appears weakened in Quebec, polling in the high 30s instead of the 40s they enjoyed in 2004 and 2006. The wildcard is the upstart Green Party. Very much on the political fringe until the 2004 when it fielded candidates in all of the ridings and captured enough of the vote (4.3%) to become eligible for public financing, the Green Party is now polling about 10 percent of the national vote. With strong support, the Greens have potential to do substantial damage to both the Liberals and the NDP.

     Taken together, these polling numbers suggest that another minority government led by the Conservatives may be in the offing. Two key unknowns are how votes will translate into seats in closely contested local races, and the degree to which voters may engage in tactical voting—abandoning most preferred parties to prevent a least preferred alternative from winning. These factors will do much to determine whether Stephen Harper and the Conservatives will be able to capture a majority or whether there will be "déjà vu all over again"—a CPC minority government and the prospect of yet another federal election before the end of the decade.

     The election also poses questions for the opposition parties. Will the heretofore ineffective Liberal Leader, Stéphane Dion, surprise pundits and regain enough momentum to bring his party within striking distance of the Conservatives, or will a disappointing performance cause his party to sack him and look for a replacement? Can the NDP and the Greens convince enough Canadians to cast sincere votes that would allow these parties to make gains in Parliament? In the end, Quebec may well be the key. There, the big question is whether the Bloc can recover strength and regain its dominant position. Harper’s desultory performance in the French language leader debate and criticism that the Conservatives have not done enough for Quebeckers provide the BQ with its opening. What will happen? Stay tuned. Next Tuesday Canadian voters will give us the answers.

Harold Clarke is Ashbel Smith Professor, School of Social Sciences, at the University of Texas at Dallas.

Allan Kornberg is Norb F. Schaefer Professor Emeritus, Department of Political Science, at Duke University.

Thomas Scotto is a Lecturer in the Department of Government at the University of Essex (UK).