Voter Mobilization

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Benjamin Highton, University of California- Davis

Experts

Adam Berinsky MIT 617-253-8190 Political behavior, public sentiment and political elites, power of ethnic stereotypes, voting reforms, media Barry C. Burden Harvard University 617-495-4249 Voter turnout, third parties, campaigns, surveys, primaries Henry Flores St. Mary's University 210-436-3214 Voting rights, Latino politics, voting behavior, urban politics Alan Gerber Yale University 203-432-5232 Modeling electoral competition, American politics, campaign finance, election rules Don Green Yale University 203-432-3237 Public opinion, voting behavior, campaign finance, hate crime Mark Hansen University of Chicago 773 -702-8798 Interest groups, citizen activism, public opinion Robert Jackson Florida State University 850-644-7307 Political participation, voting behavior, U.S. elections Jan Leighley University of Arizona 979-845-2525 Political behavior, political participation and social context, democracy Quin Monson Brigham Young University 801-422-8017 Pippa Norris Harvard University 617-495-1475 Comparative elections worldwide Jessica Perez-Monforti University of Texas Pan American 956-381-3346 Latino/hispanic politics, public opinion, women in U.S. politics, race politics Andrew Perrin University of North Carolina 919-962-6876 Deliberation, political culture, ideology, protest, media Eric Plutzer Penn State University 814-865-6576 Maya Rockeymoore  Congressional Black Caucus Foundation  202-263-2800 Fred Solop University of Northern Arizona 928-523-3135 Elections, public opinion, American politics, social movements, racial profiling  Lester Spence Washington University St. Louis 314-369-5513 Michael Traugott University of Michigan 734-764-0420 Mass media, media use by candidates, surveys, polling, coverage Ray Wolfinger University of California- Berkeley 510-642-4653 Voter turnout, voting registration systems, voter registration reform, party affiliation

As a proportion of eligible voters, the number of citizens for whom a phone call, post card, or even face-to-face contact might make the difference between casting a ballot or not voting in a national election is small. The reason is simple. Most people are either regular voters or nonvoters. Those who habitually vote will do it regardless of whether they are encouraged or mobilized to do so. And, the lack of political interest and apathy associated with chronic nonvoters means that these citizens would need more than a mobilizing push near election day in order to vote. Those who truly could go either way represent a small slice of the electorate, like those who are truly undecided about whether they would prefer George W. Bush or John Kerry to be president. Yet, when a close election is anticipated, as it was in 2000 and is in 2004, small numbers of voters can make the difference between winning and losing. It is therefore no surprise that parties, candidates, and interest groups expend resources, often in very large amounts, attempting to mobilize voters.

Understanding mobilization strategies and their success depends on recognizing that voting in America requires most citizens to be registered in advance of election day. (The exceptions are for those living in Maine, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Idaho, New Hampshire, and Wyoming, where people may register on election day, and North Dakotans, who are not required to register.) People who are not registered cannot vote, so mobilization campaigns must be geared toward rallying those who are already registered or they must be combined with voter registration efforts. Either way, mobilizing efforts ought to be aimed at marginal voters.

But, who are marginal voters? Whereas we know that African Americans and union members tend to favor the Democrats while churchgoers and gun enthusiasts prefer the Republicans, identifying who among them are marginal voters is problematic. The difficulty with identifying marginal votes means that mobilization efforts bear a resemblance to carpet bombing. Rather than be selective about which registered Democrats to call, for example, a Democratic get out the vote drive would target all registered Democrats. Likewise, for Republicans.

Although civic oriented efforts, like "Choose or Lose," sometimes receive media attention and are credited with mobilizing voters, the vast majority of time and money spent on voter mobilization is geared toward partisan, ideological, and policy oriented goals. Independents and moderates do not raise money to mobilize like minded citizens. Democrats and Republicans do; liberals and conservatives do; pro-choice and pro-life groups do. In this way, then, mobilization may be viewed as one factor contributing to the polarization of politics in America.

Finally, while identifying marginal voters is not easy, identifying marginal states is. Heading into the fall campaign season we know that states like Florida, Ohio, and Nevada will be closely contested between the Bush and Kerry campaigns, while other states will be safely on the side of one or the other. As a result, mobilization efforts will be directed toward citizens in the "battleground" states, and this will produce higher turnout in these states compared to that in the rest of the country. How well the parties and other interest groups conduct their mobilization campaigns could be the difference between winning and losing a state's electoral votes, which could be the difference between winning and losing the presidential election.

Ben Highton is assistant professor of political science at the University of California-Davis. He can be reached at bhighton@ucdavis.edu and 530-752-0970.

Recent Publications on Voter Mobilization

Green, Donald P. and Alan S. Gerber. 2004. Get Out the Vote! How to Increase Voter Turnout. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press.

Highton, Benjamin. 2004. "Registration and Voting in the United States." Perspectives on Politics 2:2 (September).

Rosenstone, Steven J. and J. Mark Hansen. 2003. Mobilization, Participation, and Democracy in America New York: Macmillan.

Green, Donald P., Alan S. Gerber, and David W. Nickerson. 2003. "Getting Out the Vote in Local Elections: Results from Six Door-to-Door Canvassing Experiments" Journal of Politics 65:4 (November).

Green, Donald, Bradley Palmquist, and Eric Schickler. 2002. Partisan Hearts and Minds: Political Parties and the Social Identities of Voters. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.

Jackson, Robert A. 2002. "Gubernatorial and Senatorial Campaign Mobilization of Voters." Political Research Quarterly 55:4 (December): 825-44.

Krueger, B.S. 2002. "Assessing The Potential Of Internet Political Participation In The United States: A Resource Approach" American Politics Research 30:5 (September): 476-498.

Niven, David. 2002. "The Mobilization Calendar: The Time-Dependent Effects of Personal Contact on Turnout." American Politics Research 30:3 (May): 307-322.

Highton, Benjamin and Ray Wolfinger. 2001. "The Political Implications of Higher Voter Turnout." British Journal of Political Science 31:1 (January):179-223.

Hoffman, Jonathan and Ray Wolfinger. 2001. "Registering and Voting with Motor Voter." PS: Political Science and Politics, 34:1 (March): 85-92.

McDonald, Michael P. and Samuel Popkin. 2001. "The Myth of the Vanishing Voter." American Political Science Review 95:4 (December): 963-974.

Gerber, Alan S. and Donald P. Green. 2000. "The Effects of Canvassing, Telephone Calls, and Direct Mail on Voter Turnout: A Field Experiment," American Political Science Review 94:3 (September): 653-663.

Leighley, Jan. 1996. "Group Membership and the Mobilization of Political Participation." The Journal of Politics 58:2 (May):447-463.