Latinos in the 2004 Elections

NOTE: This resource has been developed by APSA to provide media with information from notable political scientists on issues in American politics, including introductory essays, contact information for dozens of scholars around the country, and citations for recent research. For more information, contact Bahram Rajaee (brajaee@apsanet.org)

Michael Jones-Correa, Cornell University

Experts

Manuel Avalos Arizona State University- West 602-543-6044 Social, political and economic inequality of racial and ethnic groups, political incorporation of the Latino electorate Jason Casellas University of Texas-Austin 512-232-7202 Latino politics, legislative politics, elections, redistricting, constitutional law Henry Flores St. Mary's University 210-436-3214 Voting rights, Latino politics, voting behavior, urban politics Lisa Garcia Bedolla University of California, Irvine 949-824-9298 Latino politics, immigrant political incorporation, American racial/ethnic politics Rodolfo de la Garza Columbia University 212-854-2292 Political behavior, public policy, ethnic politics, Latino public opinion and electoral involvement Rodney Hero University of Notre Dame 574-631-5189 U.S. democracy and politics, Latino and ethnic/minority politics, state/urban politics, federalism. Benjamin Marquez University of Wisconsin- Madison 608-263-2414 Mexican-American politics, minority politics, identity politics, urban politics Valerie Martinez-Ebers Texas Christian University 817-257-6403 Race and politics, political representation of Latinos, national survey of political attitudes and behavior of Latinos and other minority groups Jessica Perez-Monforti University of Texas Pan American 956-381-3346 Latino/hispanic politics, public opinion, women in U.S. politics, race politics Karthick Ramakrishnan Public Policy Institute of California 415-291-4457 California politics Anna Sampaio University of Colorado, Denver 303-556-8318 Latino/a politics, women of color, immigration, transnationalism, Colorado politics Gary Segura University of Iowa 319-335-2341 Political representation, congressional elections, public opinion, the mobilization of minority groups Christine Sierra University of New Mexico 505-277-1098 Latina voters Fred Solop University of Northern Arizona 928-523-3135 Elections, public opinion, American politics, social movements, racial profiling

As the 2004 presidential elections approach, Hispanic voters in the United States are, more than ever, being courted by the Republican and Democratic parties. As of July 2004, the Kerry campaign had spent at least $1 million in Spanish-language ad buys, a figure supplemented by the millions of additional dollars spent on media buys by affiliated 527 groups such as the Latino-directed New Democratic Network. The candidates of both major parties have made specific appeals to Hispanics, with President Bush calling for a new guest worker program with temporary legalization, and Senator Kerry calling for "earned citizenship." Why is this? And why is more attention apparently being paid to Latinos than to other ethnic/racial groups? Political decision-makers premise their answers to these questions on three factors: the increasing number of Latinos in the United States, their thin allegiance to any political party, and their potential mobilization in electoral politics.

Increasing Numbers
Hispanics have increased steadily as a percentage of the U.S. population, becoming the largest 'minority' group in the country. The 39 million Latinos in the U.S. now account for 13% of the U.S. population, a 74% increase since 1990. The number of Latino voters has jumped as well, with as many as 6.9 million Hispanics expected to vote in the 2004 November election-6.1% of the nation's total electorate, an increase of 17% from the 2000 presidential elections. Latino voters are concentrated in largest number in key electoral states like California, Texas, New York, and Florida. Florida will receive particular attention, with the campaigns attempting to tease out its complex Latino voter patterns-between the heterogeneous Puerto Rican, Mexican, and other Latino voters near Orlando and conservative Cuban Americans in South Florida, and even distinguishing between younger and older Cubans, or earlier and more recent arrivals. Latinos will also play a key role in Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona, and Nevada, where they make up an increasing percentage of the closely divided electorates in those states.

Thin Allegiances
Many in this population are relatively recent arrivals to the U.S. Since 1970, about 40% of the more than one million immigrants entering the U.S. in any given year have been from Latin America. Forty percent of all Latinos in the U.S. are first generation immigrants; for those over 18, that figure is over 60%. So while Latinos have consistently split their vote two-to-one in favor of the Democratic Party, many of these new arrivals are newcomers to the U.S. political system, with no strong loyalties to any political institution, and uncertain in their partisanship. Naturalized citizens make up a substantial percentage of the Latino vote, and naturalized citizens are more likely to vote (50% in 2000 versus 45% of the native-born population).

In the context of a deeply polarized electorate, the shallow attachments many Latinos have to political parties in the U.S. make them attractive potential recruits to both parties. Democrat candidates are more likely to appeal to Latinos on economic grounds, while the Republican Party is more likely to appeal to Hispanics on social issues. In public opinion polls, Hispanics consistently rate education and jobs as their highest priorities, followed distantly by immigration and health care, views that put them in line with the Democratic Party. However, on social issues, like gay marriage, abortion, patriotism, and attitudes toward the military, Latinos are more likely to lean toward Republican positions.

(Under-) Mobilization
Though Latinos are being courted by both parties and will vote in the 2004 elections in increasing numbers, Hispanics still participate at substantially lower rates than their numbers would suggest. Of the 39 million Latinos in the U.S., only 13.2 million are voting-age citizens-the rest are either too young to vote, or not yet naturalized. Of those eligible, only 58% are registered to vote, and of those registered only 78% actually voted in 2000. As a result, Latinos contributed only 5% of the total votes cast in the 2000 elections; that percentage will increase somewhat in this election cycle, but the problems of Latino naturalization, registration, and voter turnout will persist. In sum, the full potential of Latino participation in American politics is still unrealized. In a contested political landscape, this potential makes Latinos attractive to both parties-but it will require a considerable investment of resources to bring this potential to fruition.

Michael Jones-Correa is associate professor of political science at Cornell University. He can be reached at mj64@cornell.edu and 607-255-3170.

Recent Publications on Latinos in the 2004 Elections

Barreto, Matt A. Gary Segura and Nathan Woods. 2004. "The Mobilizing Effect of Majority-Minority Districts on Latino Turnout." American Political Science Review 98:01 (February) :65-75.

de la Garza, Rodolfo and Louis DeSipio, eds. 2004. Muted Voices: Latinos and the 2000 Elections. Rowman and Littlefield.

Leal, David L., Valerie Martinez-Ebers and Kenneth J. Meier. 2004. "The Politics of Latino Education: The Biases of At-Large Elections." Journal of Politics 66:4 (forthcoming, November).

Stokes, Akai. 2003. "Latino Group Consciousness and Political Participation." American Politics Research 31:4 (July):361-378.

Alvarez, R. Michael and Lisa Garcia-Bedolla. 2003. "The Foundation of Latino Voter Partisanship: Evidence from the 2000 Election." Journal of Politics 65:1 (February).

Dovi, Susanne. 2002. "Preferable Descriptive Representatives: Will Just Any Woman, Black, or Latino Do?" American Political Science Review 96:4 (December):729-743.

Highton, Ben and A.L. Burris. 2002. "New Perspectives On Latino Voter Turnout In The United States." American Politics Research 30:3 (May): 285-306.

Segura, Gary, Adrian D. Pantoja and Ricardo Ramirez. 2001. "Citizens by Choice, Voters by Necessity: Patterns in Political Mobilization by Naturalized Latinos." Political Research Quarterly 54 (4): 729-750.

Hero, Rodney. 2000. Faces of Inequality: Social Diversity in American Politics Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Jones-Correa, Michael. 1998. Between Two Nations Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.