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Updated Election Forecasts Show Slight Erosion in Likely Democratic Gains
APSA Press Release
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Scholars update original forecasts made 4-6 months ago with data from early October; still predict likely Democratic gain of 21 seats in the House (down from 22), and 2 seats in the Senate (down from 3).
Washington, DC—Updated election forecasting models initially completed by political scientists up to six months ago still predict significant Democratic gains in the 2006 midterm elections, including a likely 21 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives and 2 seats in the U.S. Senate. The predictions were first completed in late April for the House and late June for the Senate by political scientists Carl Klarner and Stan Buchanan (both of Indiana State University) and recently published in the October 2006 issue of PS: Political Science and Politics, a journal of the American Political Science Association (APSA). The original studies are available online at /section_223.cfm.
The first press release from October 17, which also features a third election forecast by Alan Abramowitz (Emory University), is available online at /content_35328.cfm<!--[if !supportLists]-->. For the updated House forecast, made on October 16 and using data from October 6-8, Klarner and Buchanan revise their prediction in the following manner:
- Democrats will receive 223 seats in the House—a majority of 5 and a gain of 21 seats overall. This is one seat less than the original forecast from last April.
- There is a 91.5% probability that Democrats will win the House<!--[if !supportLists]-->, slightly down from 94.9%.
For the updated Senate forecast, also made on October 16 with data from October 6-8, the authors slightly revise their prediction as well:
- Democrats will have 47 Senate seats after the election—a net gain of 2 seats, but 4 short of a majority even when Joe Lieberman, Bernie Sanders and Jim Jeffords are counted as Democrats. This is one less seat than the forecast from last June.
- There is a 1.25% chance the Democrats will win a majority in the Senate<!--[if !supportLists]--><!--[endif]-->, down from 4.7%.
- The most competitive Senate races in 2006 remain those in Minnesota and Pennsylvania.
These forecasts reflect ongoing efforts by political scientists to analyze election dynamics in the US drawing upon long-term, immediate, local, and national data analysis. Similar forecasts appear in the October issue of PS in advance of presidential elections (/content_13000.cfm).
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The American Political Science Association (est. 1903) is the leading professional organization for the study of politics and has over 14,000 members in 80 countries. For more news and information about political science research visit the APSA media website, www.politicalsciencenews.org.
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